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Table 2 Probability of ESBL-EC transmission over one year in the household

From: Hand hygiene improvement or antibiotic restriction to control the household transmission of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli: a mathematical modelling study

Control strategy Household compositiona Probability of ESBL-EC transmission according to the profile of initial carrier (%) [95% CI] Reduction from the base case (%)
woman man child baby woman man child baby
Base case (A) b0c0 5.3 [5.0–5.6] 6.6 [6.3–6.9]
b0c1 21.4 [21.0–21.9] 20.4 [20.0–20.9] 31.2 [30.6–31.7]
b1c0 51.6 [51.1–52.2] 45.4 [44.8–46.0] 52.8 [52.2–53.4]
b1c1 65.8 [65.2–66.3] 61.4 [60.9–62] 67.8 [67.36–68.4] 68.8 [68.3–69.3]
HH improvement by 50% (B) (B-A)/A
  b0c0 2.8 [2.6–3.0] 4.3 [4.0–4.5] −47.2 −34.8
  b0c1 10.2[9.8–10.5] 12.2 [11.8–12.6] 20.8 [20.3–21.2] −52.3 − 40.2 − 33.3
  b1c0 24.5 [24.0–25.0] 26.6 [26.1–27.1] 20.1 [19.7–20.6] − 52.5 − 41.4 −61.9
  b1c1 34.5 [34.0–35.1] 38.2 [37.7–38.8] 44.2[43.6–44.8] 28.2 [27.7–28.7] −47.6 −37.8 −34.8 −59.0
Reduction of antibiotic use (C) (C-A)/A
  b0c0 5.0 [4.7–5.2] 6.3 [6.0–6.5] −5.7 −4.5
  b0c1 20.9 [20.5–21.4] 19.9 [19.4–20.4] 30.2 [29.7–30.7] −2.3 −2.5 −3.2
  b1c0 50.2 [49.7–50.8] 43.8 [43.3–44.4] 51.3 [50.7–51.8] −2.7 −3.5 − 2.8
  b1c1 63.9 [63.3–64.4] 59.0 [58.4–59.5] 65.9 [65.4–66.4] 67.0 [66.5–67.5] −2.9 −3.9 −2.8 − 2.6
  1. ab0c0–2 adults without children, b0c1–2 adults + child, b1c0–2 adults + baby, b1c1–2 adults + child + baby